Are U.S. Citizens on their way to Switzerland
The Latest Global Travel Trends
For that ninth consecutive year IPK International – the planet Travel Monitor Company – along with its partners, WTO, ETC, PATA, TIA and also the US DOC, invited some 50 travel and tourism experts from a lot more than 30 countries to Pisa, for 2 days of discussions on global tourism trends. The discussions were in line with the findings in excess of 500,000 representative interviews in certain 67 travel source europe, the Americas and Asia Pacific concerning outbound travel within the first eight months of 2002.
12 months ago, this same number of international experts, representing both public and private sectors, forecast that international tourism would decline by only 1% in 2001 over 2000’s level, regardless of the events of 11 September and also the global downturn in the economy. This forecast has since been proved correct – the outcome confirmed through the World Tourism Organization show a 0.6% reduction in international arrivals this past year. Last week’s Pisa Forum figured 2002 would show a 1% increase worldwide, using the total number of arrivals to a minimum of the same level as that achieved within the record year of 2000. This forecast considers the impact of 11 September 2001, along with the more recent terrorist attacks in Djerba, Bali and Moscow.
Although some major markets – like the USA, Japan and Germany – have continued to be affected by the impact of the depressed economy, emerging markets in Eastern Asia and europe have shown remarkable development in outbound travel. For 2003, the IPK Forum predicts coming back to pre-11 September growth levels for world travel and tourism of some 2-3%, which should progressively improve – to 3-4% in 2004. The Pisa Forum assessed the tourism performance of all of the major source markets and destinations all over the world in 2002 as well as their prospects for 2003. Additionally, it checked out the changing pattern of interest in travel and discussed if the new trends identified are temporary, or whether or not they reflect a far more significant alternation in the structure of worldwide travel and tourism demand which has implications for destinations along with other suppliers later on.
IPK also shared a few of the preliminary outcomes of its Generation project, which analyses the impact of ageing populations on international travel and tourism demand within the next Two decades. In 2001 international arrivals declined by 0.6%, the very first year of negative growth since 1982. Performs this mean that the ‘good times’ are gone? Not necessarily. Been with them not been for that sizeable rise in tourist arrivals witnessed in 2000, the outcomes for 2001 could have been in line with the annual trend observed in the last decade. Tourism enjoyed exceptional years in 2000 and 2001. In 2000, international tourism grew by 45 million arrivals, registering a rise level rarely seen before. The decline at the end of 2001 and many of 2002 requires us to re-examine the patterns of demand, the flexibleness of tourism supply and also the marketing know-how of destinations.
Furthermore, we have to reaffirm our resolve for working together to try and alleviate the negative impacts of latest events on tourism, to heal where pain was already caused, and also to ensure that future tourism development is sustainable in economic, social and ecological terms. By November 2002, preliminary is a result of different regions reveal that Northern Europe has suffered the largest decline in tourist arrivals in Europe. Another sub regions happen to be more successful, particularly the Mediterranean countries and ‘new’ destinations for example Turkey, Croatia and Bulgaria. 2002 is not a good year for that Americas, particularly the USA, that is currently down around -13%.
Everything is somewhat better within the Caribbean and Guatemala, with the latter expecting a small increase over 2001’s level. China continues to show strong development in 2002 ( 10%) and good increases are also registered by Hong Kong SAR, Japan, Thailand and Vietnam. However, the impact from the Bali tragedy around the region’s tourism remains to appear. Inbound visit Africa, using the notable exception of Nigeria, has been hit heavily by 11 September as it is so determined by airline traffic. Some destinations have even suffered double-digit declines, albeit from the low base. Heightened security concerns have negatively affected interest in travel from american source markets to North Africa and also the Middle East. The unfavourable situation doesn’t necessarily imply you will see a prolonged slump in international tourism activity. The demand possibility of travel remains strong plus some destinations which are perceived as being ‘protected’ are showing renewed strong growth. WTO forecasts that 2002 will close having a slight rise in arrivals and receipts or, at worst, stagnation in contrast to 2001.
US TRAVEL AND TOURISM – HOW TRAVELLERS IN THE INDUSTRY ARE ANSWERING UNPRECEDENTED CHALLENGES
Economic recession and 11 September have experienced a major effect on US travel. Business travel will decline a lot more than 4% this year. Leisure travel is going to be up just 2%. Total travel expenditures, which declined nearly 6% in 2001, won’t recover until 2004. Why? US travellers have altered their behaviour and traditional travel patterns. Americans returned to the basics. They’re travelling more domestically and nearer to home. They’re travelling more by car and fewer by air. They’re travelling with members of the family and visiting heritage, cultural, and activities sites more regularly. They are booking later and they’re spending less. The impact of those changing patterns continues to be uneven.
Airline carriers and urban business hotels in gateway cities have suffered greatly. The Atlantic and Pacific coasts experienced declines as the middle of the country saw little change. Companies that depended on international visitors saw dramatic losses. But destinations, lodging, attractions, and cultural and heritage sites that depend on the leisure family drive market organized well. So, too, did cruises and travel by motorhomes. Is this a lasting change in travel patterns or perhaps is it a shortterm cyclical downturn?
The is taking no chances. In unprecedented fashion they’ve formed cooperative marketing programmes and created partnerships that leverage their resources and improve their reach and impact.
Many have discounted prices. Most significantly, they have cheated this downward period to attempt major structural reviews of the operational practices, their staffing, their services as well as their marketing. In typical American fashion, the united states travel market is rethinking and reinventing its very self. Which side it lead? Nobody knows without a doubt, but we forecast a stronger industry by 2004 when travel expenditures should go back to year 2000 levels.
INBOUND TRAVEL
Travel and tourism is really a significant economic export engine for that United States, getting over US$91 billion in 2001. Travel and tourism may be the top services export, and also the fourth largest export overall for that country. The forecast of international travel projects that the record 60 million international visitors can come to the USA in 2006, a 32% increase over 2001. International visitation towards the USA will go back to pre-11 September levels by 2004.
For all of us travellers going abroad, we forecast that 2002 can have a 2% decrease, but it’s anticipated to surpass the 2000 levels by 2004. The worldwide economic slowdown and security and safety concerns are inhibiting travel worldwide. In the united states, the administration continues to be aggressive in addressing these difficulties to contribute for the recovery from the travel and tourism industry.
As our homeland gets to be more secure, we feel that international travellers will respond positively. With the Tourism Policy Council, the foreign commercial service officers have conveyed the various enhanced security and safety measures undertaken through the US Government to potential international visitors. Additionally, the Department of Commerce has undertaken a unique Tourism Export Expansion Initiative with Japan to grow tourism trade between our countries.
We now have also discussed a collaborative approach between your public and private sectors that may be introduced in other key markets. Within an important sense, the attacks of 11 September didn’t usher in a new trend but, rather, a clearer knowledge of the world by which we had lived for some time. The very best message that people can convey is as simple as carrying up with our lives. By working, by producing, we deliver a strong message to people who would destroy our country: “The Usa is alive and well, and open for business!” Once again the tourism industry has been proven as one of the most resilient and dynamic sectors from the European economy.
Following a decrease of -0.6% in international tourist arrivals in Europe in 2001 (in contrast to the record year of 2000), preliminary figures for that first 6 to 8 months of 2002 indicate a little decrease in European inbound tourism again this season (in the region of -0.2% to -0.3%). Travel and tourism happen to be part of consumer behaviour to ensure that, even with the issues related to the worldwide economic slowdown and terrorism, travellers continue to be willing to travel more. However, the pattern is different a little.
Many Countries in europe have observed increases in domestic tourism, more travel inside the same region, more travel by road and rail, more individual trips, more direct booking, as well as an increased utilization of low-cost airlines. A few of these changes are most likely temporary, but others might be structural. Concerning the supply, there’s two main elements: the destinations and also the industry. One of the destinations there are several losers plus some winners, as well as their future depends largely on the ability to adjust to demand. In the market the effects tend to be more visible.
The airlines, particularly the American carriers, and European tour operators happen to be hit harder through the weakness from the outbound markets, later booking, the tendency towards shorter period of stay, and cost-cutting on a business trip. The industry needs to adapt to these new facts. The demand remains. European destinations and also the European travel and tourism industry are world leaders in inbound and outbound tourism. They’ve shown their ability to change in yesteryear, and they will understand how to respond to the brand new challenges to be able to remain the world’s number 1 destination and first outbound market.
PACIFIC ASIA – THE NEW ENGINE OF WORLDWIDE TOURISM GROWTH
Pacific Asia (the location representing PATA’s states, including The united states and Mexico) may be the powerful new engine of worldwide tourism growth. Think about the following: Pacific Asia may be the world’s fastest-growing region, demographically and economically. It already has two-thirds from the world’s population. Travellers towards the PATA region spend over US$170 billion annually – around 40% of worldwide tourism receipts. High GDP performances in China (PRC), India and Korea (ROK) suggest this trend continues. Despite 2001 and 2002 being hardship for tourism, the Pacific Asia region – typically – continues to be doing well. Northeast and Southeast Asia are driving the region’s growth – both as destinations so that as markets. During 2001, almost 65% of international visitor arrivals in Northeast Asia originated from within Northeast & Southeast Asia.
For destinations within Southeast Asia the proportion was over 64%. In 2001 international visitor arrivals in Northeast Asia increased by 3%, as well as in Southeast Asia by 5.2%. Within the first eight months of 2002 foreign arrivals in China (PRC) increased by a lot more than 16%.
The average monthly inbound figure has become over one million. Similar double-digit growth rates may also be seen for Hong Kong SAR and Macau SAR. Arrivals in Thailand within the first seven months of the year are up 6%. Vietnam expires 10%. International arrivals into Cambodia are up 8%. Outbound traffic from Korea (ROK) expires more than 16% this season to date. Both like a destination so that as a market, the tourism scales are dipping increasingly towards the PATA region.
The tragic events of 11 September in the united states and more recent terrorist attacks in Bali and Moscow have experienced, and will keep having, a severe effect on travel and tourism demand. Yet you will find clear signs and symptoms of a recovery, reflecting the resilience of the profession and consumers’ interest in travel after one of the greatest confidence crises within the history of tourism.
Pre-11 September growth levels should begin to resume from 2003, and growth from some key source markets may even be positive in 2002. It was the main message to leave three days of intensive discussions between world tourism experts gathered in Pisa from 6-9 November for that ninth World Travel Monitor Forum. The meeting was organised by IPK International in cooperation using the World Tourism Organization (WTO), the ecu Travel Commission (ETC), the Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA), the Travel Industry Association of America (TIA) and also the US Department of Commerce. The forum comprised some 50 heads of research and/or marketing representing national tourism organisations, research institutes, industry associations and individual corporations from over 30 different countries.
Such as all major European outbound travel markets, the united states, Canada, Australia, Japan, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and Morocco. “After a decline of 1% in international tourism in 2001, we currently expect a 1% increase for 2002,” said Rolf Freitag, President of IPK and founding father of the World Travel Monitor. “This forecast, that is based on the outcomes of the World Travel Monitor – along with the findings in our partners along with other tourism experts from all over the world – means a return towards the record level achieved in 2000.” World growth should begin to return to pre-11 September rates by 2003, confirmed WTO’s Rok Klancnik.
The coming year should visit a 2-3% rise and growth will get slowly close to 3-4% by 2004. As predicted Twelve months ago in the last Pisa Forum, the united states has been among the source markets and destinations hardest hit through the events of 11 September 2001, the continued threat of terrorism in 2002 and also the economic recession. Outbound trip volume fell by 12% within the first 1 / 2 of this year.
Nevertheless, based on Suzanne Cook and Helen Marano, representing the Travel Industry Association of America and also the US Department of Commerce in the Pisa Forum, US outbound travel demand expressed when it comes to total expenses are forecast to fall with a relatively modest 2% for that full Twelve months of 2002, following a decrease of 5% in 2001. Like a destination, south america overall are required to suffer a 6% drop sought after this year.
The outlook for Europe far less pessimistic, although international arrivals in the area will probably show little change over last year’s level. “In relation to outbound volume, however, Europe should record a 1% increase, carrying out a 1.2% decline within the first eight months of 2002,” said IPK’s Dennis Pyka. “This compares with this original forecast of the 2% rise for that year soon after the events of 11 September 2001. The development in demand for outbound travel by Europeans should accelerate in 2003.” When it comes to percentage growth the very best performers among European outbound travel markets within the first eight months of the year were Hungary, Norway and Slovakia – by using increases which is between 5-10% over the same period in 2001. But there is also relatively healthy growth from a few of the region’s leading source markets like the UK, Netherlands and Austria. Germany, France, Sweden, Denmark and Switzerland, however, recorded declines of -2% or even more.
Leisure travel has fared a lot better than business travel but, as predicted, price continues to be a main factor influencing Europeans’ holiday decisions. This really is reflected within the sharp rise in popularity of lower-cost destinations for example Bulgaria, Croatia and Slovakia, Leslie Vella told participants in the Pisa Forum, quoting European Travel Commission data. Short-haul destinations have generally benefited in the expense of long-haul destinations, with interest in North America (-13%) showing the best fall sought after. “The main long-haul destination to buck the popularity has been China, as seen by both results of the ecu Travel Monitor and data gathered by PATA,” John Koldowski from the Pacific Asia Travel Association said. “But many other Asian destinations and Nigeria have similarly recorded double-digit growth from Europe this season.”
China has additionally been a major cause of world tourism growth like a source market this season, outranking all other world markets when it comes to percentage growth. If it is rapid rate of expansion continues it’ll soon overtake Japan which, based on the JTB Foundation’s Hidetoshi Kobayashi, is currently forecast to record modest development in 2002 (of the maximum 1-2%) following a 9% decline in 2001. India is yet another Asian source that seems to have recorded strong double-digit development in 2002, and IPK has intends to add it to their email list of markets surveyed regularly by the World Travel Monitor.
Australian outbound travel is anticipated to show a really modest rise in 2001, said Stephen O’Neill from the Australia Tourist Commission – down in the 4% forecast twelve months ago – however the overall annual growth forecast for that market within the next 10 years is as high as 6-7%. During this time period there will be a consistent shift towards shorter-haul Asian destinations. Unsurprisingly, there has also been reasonable change in the most well-liked destinations of travellers from Gulf Co-operation Council countries, said Gautam Sengupta of Market Vision, the planet Travel Monitor partner in Dubai. Interest in Turkey, the united states, Spain, the united kingdom and Greece has now use destinations inside the Middle East region, Southeast and South Asia, New zealand and australia.
Even when/if the threat of war with Iraq subsides the traditionally popular destinations could find they are rivaling these new favourites, that have made concerted efforts to know the markets’ needs and also to facilitate access with the abolition or simplification of visa procedures. Not every Arab destinations have suffered declines from Western markets, either. Dubai is a example of a destination that is constantly on the sustain its appeal, and Morocco expects to finish 2002 only 2-3% recorded on last year’s level, based on Jamal Kilito of the Moroccan National Tourist Office. “This compares having a projected (WTO estimate) 20% decline in arrivals for Tunisia,” he explained.
Interestingly, the exchange of market intelligence one of the participants from the Pisa World Travel Monitor Forum highlighted the truth that current trends are remarkably similar in key markets all over the world. Among the trends identified, the most crucial are:
•Continuing, and perhaps even growing, concerns over security and safety •??Shorter and much more frequent holidays, but fewer short/weekend breaks of 1-3 nights long
•A shift to domestic and intra-regional travel
•A shift from air to ground transport, despite a parallel rise in demand for lowcost airlines
•An extended trend towards late booking and increased utilisation of the internet to purchase travel
•Increased interest in partly packaged, or customised/independently tailored, holidays in the expense of traditional inclusive tour packages
•Greater curiosity about holidays offering an event rather than a preference for any specific destination or product
•Increased interest in authentic experiences including local culture and closeness to nature
Participants representing the key travel and tourism operators in the Pisa Forum – TUI, Thomas Cook and also the ACCOR Group – also expressed their concerns concerning the rising gap between travel supply and demand. Tourism products don’t provide sufficient added value to satisfy today’s customer needs and much more attention must be paid to new holiday programmes and new accommodation products. Set up trends identified in Pisa are temporary, or are a part of a more fundamental alternation in the overall structure of travel demand from maturing markets, is really as yet unclear. These trends would be the focus of research through the Pisa Forum participants within the next Twelve months. But the best factor likely to influence interest in outbound travel later on is the changing demographic profile of key source markets, and notably the rapid ageing from the population in Europe and Japan. IPK International expects release a the preliminary outcomes of its Generation project in March 2003, highlighting the impact of ageing populations on international travel and tourism demand within the next Two decades.
A complete summary of the presentations made in the Pisa Forum, in addition to a summary of conclusions in the discussions, is going to be available in a 200-page report from IPK International for around EUR 490 from early December.
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